Supreme Court Voting Behavior: 1996 Term

This Article, the twelfth in a series, attempts through statistical analysis to determine whether individual Supreme Court Justices and the Court as a whole voted more conservatively, more liberally, or about the same in the 1996 Term as compared with past terms. Overall, the 1996 Term reflects consolidation rather than expansion of the current Court\u27s conservatism. Although the marked increase in the Court\u27s rejection of First Amendment claims this Term is atypically conservative, this movement may well be due to cross-cutting ideological issues in the cases decided, not substantive rejection of liberal free speech norms. Moreover, the most politically liberal members of the Court often vote as a bloc in supporting the federal government and in favoring statutory civil rights claims, suggesting that liberal forces on the Court are not quiescent. That reality is underscored by swing vote analysis showing once again this Term that whichever ideological wing captures Justices Kennedy\u27s vote obtains the power to decide the Nation\u27s most controversial cases. The ideology of the Rehnquist Court, in sum, is mature and ripe for change. The next replacements on the Court will either energize the Court\u27s extant (but somewhat quiescent) conservatism, or tip the balance of power in favor of an already established liberal wing