Cost Optimizing Simulation and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis on Batteries’ Prospects - A case study of Time Shifting Local Variable Renewable Generation in Northern Finland

Expanding variable renewable electricity generation can reduce CO2 emissions, but is weather dependent and intermittent (not always available) and may cause increased price volatility. Electricity storage seems a probable solution by time shifting peak generation to peak loads. Between 2011-2016 utility-scale lithium-ion batteries’ global cumulative capacity has increased fourfold while their cost has halved. Experience curve analysis of future decline suggest next halving by 2030. This, with other inputs, were used in 3 separate simulations (HOMER Pro software) to meet the load of 3 different sized rural communities in northern Finland. Including a battery in a system design lead to 1-2% increase (decrease) in NPC (in CO2 emissions), but results is sensitive to assumptions on local distribution and to some battery characteristics. Current system, sourcing electricity only form the grid, was found to clearly minimize NPC. Cost and 3 other criteria were identified to reflect community interests and preferences. Multi-criteria decision analysis compared 4 simulated alternatives – grid, net self-sufficiency (NSS), 30% local renewable and 30% local renewable with battery – in respect to the identified criteria using TOPSIS framework. Result wasn’t clear and depended on selection of framework for weighting the criteria. Future research could consider performance and full life cycle environmental impacts of batteries and compare to supplementary products: demand side management, increased transmission capacity, non-intermittent local renewable technologies and other forms of storage. Integration of electricity distribution and wider energy markets could enhance the analysis. Nonetheless, this study well demonstrated batteries’ ability to reasonably provide time shifting service