Proposing a Multi-Staged Calibration Methodology for System Dynamics Construction Management Models

The use and development of system dynamics (SD) models has been growing in construction management research. However, it is noticed that the complexity of such models has stagnated. This holds back on the full capabilities of SD. It is hypothesized that such stagnation is caused by the lack of multi-stage calibration guidelines. In SD, calibration is the process of finding the optimal values of certain model parameters to replicate the behavior of the project that is analyzed. Current models use single-stage calibration. The authors propose a multi-stage methodology for constructing advanced SD models and calibrating them in sequential steps. The developed methodology was validated by testing it in an advanced SD model that studies the impacts of out-of-sequence work in construction projects. By using the developed methodology, researchers will be able to develop more advanced SD models. This has practical benefits in dispute resolution and project control