The Risk in Early Design (RED) Method: Likelihood and Consequence Formulations

This study focuses specifically on the relationship between function and risk in early design by presenting a mathematical mapping from product function to likelihood and consequence risk assessments that can be used in the conceptual design phase. An investigation of a spacecraft orientation subsystem is used to demonstrate the proposed mappings. The risk assessment presented in this paper is a tool that will aid designers by identifying risks as well as reducing the subjectivity of the likelihood and consequence value from a risk element, provide four key risk element properties (design parameter, failure mode, likelihood, and consequence) for numerous risk elements with a simple calculation, and provide a means for inexperienced designers to effectively address risk in the conceptual design phase. The investigation demonstrates that the method presented in this paper is a useful tool for preliminary identification and assessment of product risks