Community-based disaster risk reduction in East Java, Indonesia

Mount Kelud, which is located on the borders of the Malang, Kediri, and Blitar regencies of East Java province in Indonesia is an active andesitic stratovolcano. In 1586, Mount Kelud erupted with a death toll of 10,000, and, during the twentieth century, five eruptions occurred, in 1901, 1919, 1951, 1966, and 1990 with a total death toll of around 5,400. Eruptions of Mount Kelud potentially threaten three regencies, and lava flows threaten two. These primary and secondary risks mean that, ,vithin a 10km radius, Mount Kelud is potentially a risk to 1,777,864 people. Meanwhile, all these communities are at a low level of preparedness. Mount Kelud is usually seen as a tourist destination, and the threat of disasters has been neglected. The change, during the 2007 incident from an explosive to an effusive eruption is still causing threats for some villages around. This condition implies two threat scenarios: firstly, if the dome of lava grows quickly, the threat changes from an explosive eruption to the dome avalanche, as happened during the recent eruption of Mount Merapi. Secondly, if the dome of lava should be obstructed or stopped, the volume of the crater lake would be larger than before, because the water sewer of the bottom crater lake would be obstructed