Probabilistic Geotechnical Analyses For Offshore Facilities

Society requires increasingly that the hazard and risk associated with engineered constructions be quantified. The paper presents ge-otechnical hazard assessment in the context of a risk framework. Concepts of uncertainties, reliability, safety and risk are briefly re-viewed. The use of the approach is exemplified for offshore facilities, including a piled foundation, a gravity foundation, a jack-up structure and underwater slopes. The applications demonstrate that probabilistic analyses complement the conventional deterministic safety factor and deformation-based analyses, and contribute to achieving a safer and optimum design. The conclusions emphasize the usefulness of a risk assessment, the importance of engineering judgment in the assessment and the need for involving multi-disciplinary competences to achieve reliable estimates of hazard and risk. The profession can only gain by implementing more sys-tematically than before probabilistic-based thinking and risk-based approaches