Askim-tunets kronologi. En tillämpad bayesiansk analys

The chronology of the Askimtun. An applied Bayesian analysisIn order to show its potential, this article introduces a non-intuitive chronological Bayesian analysis of the pre Roman Iron Age settlement site at Askim Church in Østfold, Norway. The archaeological background is provided by an article by Grethe Bjørkan Bukkemoen (2015). The calibration program used to perform the Bayesian analyses is BCal (Buck m.fl. 1999). The analysis suggests that the settlement commences in the early part of the 3rd c. BCE and comes to an end in the early part of the 1st BCE. Presently, its continuation during the Roman Iron Age is unknown. The main part of the analysis concerns the dating of the houses 1:1 and 1:2 which overlap each other – House 1:1 being the older of the two. The time gap between the two buildings seems too large to be filled by the adjacent House 2, which is younger than House 1:1 and older than House 1:2. In the discussion the chronological analysis is used to corroborate and develop Bukkemoen’s discussion on the pre Roman Iron Age farm house as a social agent. It is suggested that the pre Roman Iron Age house, which initially is determined by the subsistence landscape, is replaced by the late pre Roman Iron Age house, which in its turn defines the subsistence landscape