Wicked problems, reductive tendency, and the formation of (non-)opportunity beliefs

Wicked problems persistently cause human suffering, endanger wildlife, and degrade the environment, and are defined by their inherent complex, uncertain, and evaluative nature. Because of these interrelated and mutually reinforcing characteristics, they are notoriously difficult to solve. We explain how the nature of wicked problems affects the way in which beliefs about opportunities to solve them are formed, and why these beliefs often prevent prospective entrepreneurs from correctly judging not only the feasibility of acting on them, but whether such an opportunity exists at all. Drawing on this research context we also help explain how unfounded entrepreneurial opportunity beliefs are formed more broadly. That is, prospective entrepreneurs making the Type I error of falsely identifying an opportunity when there is none. We draw on the ‘reductive tendency’, a process through which individuals simplify complex systems into cognitively manageable representations. While simplified representations offer benefits, such as quicker decision-making, such representations are often inaccurate as they overlook the complexities of the problem at hand. We argue that the reductive tendency can make wicked problems appear easier to solve than they are in reality, leading to the formation of what we call non-opportunity beliefs; the conviction that one can solve a problem, when in fact the objective conditions required to do so are absent. We further argue that prior experiential knowledge makes an entrepreneur less susceptible to the reductive tendency and, consequentially, less likely to form a non-opportunity belief. Our work offers contributions to both theory and practice. We extend the critical realist perspective on non-opportunities by explicating the mechanisms through which non-opportunity beliefs are formed. We further introduce and conceptualize problem uncertainty as a specific form of state uncertainty where the exact definition, boundary conditions, and causes of a problem are unknown or unknowable. This offers a more focused conceptualization of the uncertainty inherent to wicked problems that also specifically identifies problems as the starting point of all entrepreneurial opportunity. Our theorizing is also of practical importance since, in the context of socially/environmentally focused entrepreneurship, ill-conceived attempts to address wicked problems can have serious negative consequences for people and ecosystems that are already among the most vulnerable. By highlighting the susceptibility of entrepreneurs to the reductive tendency, we expand awareness of an avoidable and consequential pitfall in the entrepreneurship process. We further offer a means of circumventing the reductive tendency – through the acquisition of pertinent knowledge