A scenario-neutral approach to understanding the regional land use change and food supply consequences of future climate and socio economic change

Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (future climate, yields and land suitability) and demand (socio-economic and technology change such as population, food choice, imports, & environmental choices). Given the widely recognised future uncertainty in both of these, this presentation uses the IMPRESSIONS Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP), The IAP contains meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015).The profitability of each land use is modelled for every soil in every 10 minute grid across Europe. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds. The model iterates the price of six commodity groups until demand is satisfied or cannot be met. The model has been systematically run with perturbations against the baseline of five key variables: annual temperature, annual precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, European population, and finally, plant yield changes due to restrictions or genetic and technological developments. The land use results for each scenario are aggregated into 8 climatically-distinct regions. Contour plots are used to display impact response surfaces that demonstrate differing regional sensitivities and tipping points, affording insights into the regional opportunities and threats that the future may offer to European agriculture and forestry.