A framework for the design and evaluation of adaptation pathways in large river deltas

This series is based on the work of the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project, funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). CARIAA aims to build the resilience of vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three climate change hot spots in Africa and Asia. The program supports collaborative research to inform adaptation policy and practice.The pathways approach to adaptation has been applied to delta regions previously, but to a limited extent, Haasnoot et al. (2012), for instance, explore a theoretical delta case. Perhaps the most pertinent example is Kwakkel et al. (2015), who systematically evaluate adaptation pathways in the Rhine Delta. They highlight the strong decision-support potential of systematic multi-objective evaluation of flexible pathways (i.e. pathways which can be switched between as the system evolves through time). Yet their policy set might be regarded as restricted when compared with the scope of the DECCMA project; they do not model household decision-making or diverse livelihoods, and consider primarily hard, hydraulic adaptation interventions. Most importantly they do not consider migration and relocation choices, which are now becoming pertinent in delta regions. The systematic evaluation of cross-sectoral adaptation pathways at the large-system scale seems largely unexplored, and worthy of consideration for methodological learning, and because of its potential role in enabling climate-resilient development