Adequacy of the current agronomic management strategies to cope with climate change : the case of Same district in Tanzania

Meeting: 11th WaterNet/WAFSA/GWP-SA Symposium 2010 IWRM for National and Regional Integration : Where Science, Policy and Practice Meet, 27-29 October 2010, Victoria Falls, ZimbabweSub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change because of widespread poverty and limited adaptive capacity. The future climate change is likely to present an additional challenge to the agriculture sector. Therefore, the effects of climate change on the current agronomic management practices were investigated in Same District, Tanzania. APSIM software was used to investigate the response of maize yield on different agronomic management practices using the current and future climatic data. The climate change projections data from global climate models was downscaled using self-organizing maps technique. The yields of different maize varieties based on different sets of the current agronomic management strategies were simulated for the current and future climate (from 2046 to 2065). Under the conventional practices, the results showed that during the Masika season (from March to May) there will be a decline of 13% for cultivar Situka, no change for cultivar Kito, increase of 10% and 15% for cultivars Sc401 and TMV1, respectively. Under the recommended practices, cultivars TMV1 and Sc401 are projected to register a 10% increase whereas cultivars Situka and Kito are projected to register a decrease of 10% and 45%, respectively. Also, under both conventional and recommended management practices, results showed that during Vuli season (from October to December/January) all cultivars are projected to register between 75% and 146% increase in yields. The study concludes that the future climate change is going to have positive effects on the current management practices during Vuli season and negligible impact during Masika