MODEL PREDIKSI DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DENGAN KONDISI IKLIM DI KOTA YOGYAKARTA

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease that is an issue anualy in Indonesia. Climate is the important role to increase cases of dengue virus transmission in the environment. One of the districts with the highest dengue cases is Kota Yogyakarta. The source data of this study is used secondary data of DBD incidents derived from Health Office in Yogyakarta City and climate data from Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The data were taken within eight years period starting from 2004 to 2011. The aim of study was to obtain the predictions model DBD that associated with the climatic conditions in the city of Yogyakarta. Descriptive and analytical study using Minitab 16 statistical and Excel to analyze the data. The analysis showed that the model predicted of dengue incidence in the city of Yogyakarta using three variations of climate predictor of rainfall, the rain and the temperature at the time lag 1 with correlation values 57% - 70%, while at the time of lag 2 with a correlation value among 45% - 59%. It can be concluded that the result equation can be used as a predictive model of dengue cases for the next one month. Further research is needed to generate the acurate predictive models