Application of ARIMA models for the analysis of utilization process of military technical objects.

AbstractThe newest solutions in Polish Armed Forces are implemented gradually and focus mainly on soldiers combat readiness. Many concurrent processes occur, which proper analysis and interpretation could constitute command process and task realization support, however poor and standing (paper) record seems to be an obstacle in their modeling. Therefore the author of the article tried to depict the process of military technical objects exploitation based on archived data according to present methods of documents preparation, circuit and record, applicable in Polish Armed Forces. Based on that, the method of aircraft ships from military air base readiness research, powered by ARIMA model was proposed. Using empirical data of two years of exploitation, the identification of researched time series, and then a few models estimation was made. Finally, the best model was chosen and verified.