The impact of Panama Canal expansion on East and Gulf coast ports of U.S.A. A Regression Analysis for the port of New York/New Jersey.

Purpose: This work presents the different impacts of Panama Canal expansion on EGC ports of U.S.A as well as the latest summary of the infrastructure investments of the top EGC ports. The purpose of this paper is the use of a forecasting method for the development of the relationship between container port throughput of New York/New Jersey and external variables outside the country. Methodology / Approach: Using a deductive approach, the research follows a mixed method case study strategy including two phases of collecting secondary data. Firstly, in the quantitative phase relevant data will be collected and analysed. Second, the qualitative phase helps to the understanding and explanation of the quantitative phase. Also, exploratory and explanatory approaches are used to the current research. Findings: The results show that container port throughput at New York/New Jersey is more related to external variables outside the country rather than internal variables in the hinterland. Specifically, this research found that there is a high positive correlation between container port throughput of New York/New Jersey with the independent variables of world GDP, global oil production and foreign direct investment. In addition, the author can conclude that GDP is the most popular macroeconomic variable in order to forecast container port throughput. Further Research: The principal goal for further research is the development of a model that can represent the data that will be stated in this dissertation. According to this, a software package can be developed to enable people to use a comprehensive forecasting model which is prepared for use and does not demand knowledge of special simulation. Practical Implications: The evidence of this study indicates that different variables can affect different type of ports. In order to create a forecasting model of container throughput for the port of New York/New Jersey, it was important to develop the appropriate independent variables that suit to the specific port and can be used in the model. Also, before creating a forecasting model, correlation test is necessary between independent variables and dependent variable. Originality / Value: Regarding the port of New York/New Jersey, the forecasting model helps analyzers to predict the container throughput of the port in the future as well as port planners to take a decision on the expanding projects of the port. This would help port planners to estimate if the future traffic of the port would be big enough so expanding projects could be advantageous for the port.