Prediction of the risk of cardiovascular diseases in middle aged and elderly population

The cardiovascular system is one of the most important systems of human organs. Malfunction of its organs can cause a myocardial infarction or stroke – complications which mostly lead to human death. The key point of this work is to identify the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease or to die from cardiovascular disease for males and females by analyzing data from HAPIEE (Health Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors In Eastern Europe) and Multifactorial Ischemic Heart Disease Prevention Study (MIHDPS) databases and using different methods for predictive statistical analysis and to create an online calculator that can be used to calculate individual probability of death from cardiovascular disease. Logistic regression has been used to monitor patients for a longer period of time when deaths were analyzed each year since the start of the observation (logistical regression would be used to monitor patients for a long period of time, when each year would be analyzed separately after each observation period); Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. An online calculator based on the decision tree principle (http://www.skl-tikimybe.lt/) was developed as for individual risk assessment to die from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of middle and elderly population morbidity and mortality from CVD and the factors influencing it. The objectives of the study: 1.To evaluate the epidemiological situation of CVD and their riskfactors in the middle-aged and elderly population. 2.To determine the probability to get ill from CVD in different age andsex groups, using different prediction models in the urban popu-lation. 3.To calculate the risk of death from CVD in different age and sexgroups, using various mathematical prediction models. 4.To develop a method for the assessment of the individual risk ofdeath from CVD in the middle and older age groups. The originality of the study Various methods of statistical analysis were used to predict the probability of morbidity and death from CHD by analyzing the data of HAPIEE and Multifactorial Ischemic Heart Disease Prevention Study. The most common methods of statistical analysis (e. g. logistic regression) are most often used to solve the various hypotheses about the risk factors for CVD morbidity and mortality, but there are many other methods that are more comprehensible to the consumer or improved as traditional methods