Anatomy of Natural Hazard Analysis:Uncertainty Propagation and Visualization

Natural hazard analysis involves various kinds of assumptions and approximations. Observations and data used in calibration processes are subject to errors. Consequently, probabilistic hazard assessments are uncertain. The methodologies for natural hazard analyses have evolved rapidly by improving the quantification and visualization of uncertainties associated with probabilistic hazard estimates. However, approaches across different natural hazards are not uniform. Aiming at developing a cross-hazard framework for natural disaster assessment, the current methods for seismic and tsunami hazard analyses are reviewed. In light of current needs for a dynamic and integrated framework for cascading hazards, a multi-hazard approach for earthquake and tsunami is presented.