The term structure of exchange rate predictability: commonality, scapegoat, and disagreement

In this paper, we study the exchange rate predictability across a range of investment horizons by proposing a generalized (term structure) model to capture the dynamics between the risk premium component of exchange rates and a broad set of variables meanwhile handle both parameter and model uncertainty. We also demonstrate the projections of common predictable information over the term structure, and existence of time-varying term-structural effect and model disagreement effect of exchange rate predictors in FX trading, which in turn validates the practical use of our model. We then utilize the time-variation in the probability weighting to identify the scapegoat drivers of customer order flows. We further comprehensively evaluate both statistical and economic significance of the model allowing for a full spectrum of currency investment management, and find that the model generates substantial performance fees of 6.5% per annum