Probabilistic analysis of hazardous events and safety of the Ignalina nuclear power plant

The main purpose of performed work is the probabilistic analysis of external hazardous events, which have an influence on safety of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (NPP). For risk estimation, the following hazards were considered in detail: forest fires; external floods;airplane crash; seismic events; extreme winds; fall of frequency in a electricity network and loss of an external electricity supply. In order to estimate probabilities of hazard occurrence the statistical data related to various external events were collected, mathematical models were constructed and probabilities of these events occurrence were determined. T first , the methodology was established for screening out hazardous events, which impact on Ignalina NPP safety is not significant. Statistical, metheorological, technical and other dataom the Republic of Lithuania has been used to estimate probability of the most important hazardous events. The aircraft crash hazard was modeled and analyzed in more detailLietuvos energetikos instituta