The transforming educational gradient in marital disruption in Northern Europe: a comparative study based on GGS data

A substantial body of research has accumulated on the socio-economic correlates of marital instability. Previous studies have shown considerable variation in the association between women's educational attainment and marital disruption. This article complements existing research by investigating the pattern of this relationship across countries and its change over time. The main geographical focus is on Northern Europe but evidence is also presented from countries in other regions of the continent. The data come from the Generations and Gender Surveys conducted from 2004 to 2010. The estimates from Cox proportional hazards models reveal considerable variation in the educational gradient of disruption risks. We find that among the Northern European countries, Norway and East Germany exhibit a negative relationship between women's education and marital disruption. In contrast, Lithuania features a positive association, while Estonia and West Germany show a neutral relationship. The observed pattern seems to follow the advancement of family deinstitutionalisation and women's increased economic autonomy. With regard to temporal change, our study lends support to the view that the relationship between women's educational attainment and marital disruption is not static but evolves from positive to neutral and further to negative. Due to the contextual features discussed in the article, Northern Europe can be regarded as a forerunner in this development among the regions of EuropeSocialinių tyrimų centrasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta