Analysis of energy supply disturbances in Lithuania

The Lithuanian situation of safety and security of the energy supply is quite complicated.Few countries supply primary energy sources and there are no networks of gas, oil and electricity to Western Europe; the transmission network needs modernization. In this paper a methodological scheme of energy safety and security of supply is presented, which is well reasoned by scientific methods and would solve these problems.The methodology includes the following stages : analysis of scenarios of disturbances, economical modelling, reliability modelling of supply systems, and analysis of consequences. Analysis of energy supply disturbances and evaluating their appearance probabilities are performed. Long term scenarios evaluate new technologies (e.g., new power plants) and their influence on energy supply security. A mathematical model of energt disturbances is created in this paper; it is chosen and modelled based on 110 different scenarios of energy disturbances. Critical situations are assessed by costs, which have to be paid for to secure a proper supply of energyInformatikos fakultetasLietuvos energetikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta