Probabilistic energy security analysis for development of the energy system

The aim of the article is to present the method of probabilistic energy security assessment and evaluate energy security of the development scenarios of the central heat system for strategic planning. The method of energy security assessment is introduced, including a model of formation of disturbances from threats and a model of development of a disrupted energy system as well as the algorithm of calculation of the energy security coefficient. The article also presents a few scenarios (on various disturbances) for the development of the Kaunas city district heating system: one generation technology in a monopoly scenario, and limited monopoly where the capacity is limited to 60% and 40% for one generation technology. Sensitivity analysis identified the most important parameter of the energy system: energy generation monopoly factorLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta