Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in aircraft crash modelling

The model of aircraft crash are analysed and developed in order to estimate the probability of this critical event occurrence near the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant in the Republic of Lithuania. The real statistic data are presented and the impact of aircraft crash on the nuclear power plant safe operation, the simulation and probabilistic estimation of this event occurrence, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and the investigated modelling approach as well as used software application possibilities are discussedLietuvos energetikos institutas, eugeniju@mail.lei.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, j.augutis@if.vdu.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, ricardas@if.vdu.ltLietuvos energetikos institutas, robertas@mail.lei.l