The methodology of risk estimation and control of emergency states in electric power networks

The majority of equipment and lines of the transmission network have been exploited for several decades. To evaluate the reliability of the transmission network and the risk of non-compliance with contract obligations, the authors present the principles of methodologies for evaluating the reliability of electrical system networks and for risk management of a potential mode of hazards. These methodologies were developed jointly using the deterministic and probabilistic models. The mathematical apparatus that combines the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies into one model is described and a recurrent algorithm for reliability model parameters uncertainty assessment is proposed. This methodology allows to incorporate the economic and expenditure factors of equipment renewals and maintenance into risk control of transmission network possible emergenciesKauno technologijos universitetasLietuvos energetikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta