Quantitative approach to assess farming system resilience to climate change uncertainty [Poster]

Poster Diaporama de la présentation orale du poster : 3 diapositives Résumé en page 38 des actesInternational audienceAssessing the resilience of farming system to climate change through their cropping system diversity and socio-economic context is an important challenge for policy makers in the Mediterranean region. In fact, decision-makers are often confronted to contradictory demands when it comes to developing projects to foster suitable strategies of less resilient farms. This paper aims at developing and using a multi-scale quantitative approach for assessing, at short and long-term, the impacts of climate change on farm resilience behavior and various socio-economic and environmental indicators. Two scenarios, the business as usual and climate change, with a time horizon of 2030, have been developed and compared for representative farming system in northern Tunisia. The results of this study indicate that more than 70% are identified as resilient to climate change. Those farms are mostly cultivated with cereal and forage crops, less sensitive to water stress and soil salt accumulation. Inversely, 15% of farms which are dominated by orchards are usually less resilient. Those farms showed an important drop of their farm income (30217 DT), due mainly to their incapacity to adjust their cropping system under water stress condition and soil fertility degradation