A Probabilistic Approach to the Spatial Variability of Ground Properties in the Design of Urban Deep Excavation

Uncertainty in ground datasets often stems from spatial variability of soil parameters and changing groundwater regimes. In urban settings and where engineering ground interventions need to have minimum and well-anticipated ground movements, uncertainty in ground data leads to uncertain analysis, with substantial unwelcomed economical and safety implications. A probabilistic random set finite element modelling (RSFEM) approach is used to revisit the stability and serviceability of a 27 m deep submerged soil nailed excavation built into a cemented soil profile, using a variable water level and soil shear strength. Variation of a suite of index parameters, including mobilized working loads and moments in facing and soil inclusion elements, as well as stability and serviceability of facing and the integrated support system, are derived and contrasted with field monitoring data and deterministic FE modelling outputs. The validated model is then deployed to test the viability of using independent hydraulic actions as stochastic variables as an alternative to dependent hydraulic actions and soil shear strength. The achieved results suggest that utilizing cohesion as a stochastic variable alongside the water level predicts system uncertainty reasonably well for both actions and material response; substituting the hydraulic gradient produces a conservative probability range for the action response only