History friendly models of industry evolution: the case of computer industry

This paper presents and discusses the methodological rationale, the basic structure and some first results of a new approach to the analysis of processes of industry evolution: "history-friendly" models, concerning the history of the computer industry. The specific purpose of this paper is to evaluate in more general terms the potential and limits of this approach, rather than the formal structure or results of a particular case. The paper illustrates first the philosophy beneath the use of "history-friendly" models. Then, after a brief summary of the main stylized facts about the evolution of the computer industry and of the main theoretical issues raised up by our investigation, we go on presenting the structure of the model. We then discuss the main results and some preliminary exercises involving different hypotheses on agents' behavior (strategies of product diversification) and policy issue