Health and environmental benefits from combined control of obesity and climate changes

Introduction: Modern lifestyle is among one of the most relevant cause of obesity and climate change. Preventing both of them imply a win-win strategy for social wellness improvement (i.e. health and environmental benefits). The way to solve these problems relies on the partial substitution of caloric food (e.g. meat), which is also responsible for large amount of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, with less caloric food (e.g. fruits and vegetables), which is proved of exerting a lower impact on climate change. Methods: The analysis is referred to the Italian population, based on data from the Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT). The relationship between obesity and climate change is here explained experimentally through a two step model. In the first step, a regression model (OLS method) is adopted to explain the obesity rate, in terms of ratio of people consuming meat more than one time a week, and the ration of people consuming fruits and vegetables less than once a day. The outcome of this analysis allows the definition of policy target, in terms of obesity abatement, provided a reasonable food demand change. In the second step, the observed food demand change from the previous step is combined with Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) indicators referred to each type of food (i.e. meat; fruits and vegetables) in order to evaluate the impact of food industry on climate change. Results: The Italian population shows alerting diet habits, with 70% of people consuming meat at least once a week (first group), implying an excess of energy intake. In addition, 56% of people are not used to eat fruits and vegetables at least once a day (second group). Assuming a policy aimed at cutting by half the ratio of both groups, by using the first model we estimate a reduction of the obesity rate from the current 9.68% to 7.04%. This imply an increase of the annual consumption of fruits and vegetable by 1,668,000 t, and a reduction of 873,360 t of meat. By using the second model, we estimate a significant reduction of CO2 emissions, by 5.406 Mt per year. In economic terms, the effect of the policy can be roughly estimated in terms of 26.7 MEur of benefits for reducing obesity prevention actions, and 85.58 MEur, as the economic value of carbon emissions of activities connected with the balancing of food production systems to people’s needs. Conclusion: The study shows the evidence that the consumption of food with low content of calories has simultaneous effect in the reduction of obesity and in the mitigation of climate changes. The approach developed in this study suggest the opportunity to design some measures within climate change policies targeting to the promotion of healthy dietary patterns aimed at obesity control. However, there is still a room for the design of effective and efficiency strategy to induce a significant shift of dietary patterns