A Market Dynamics Model for Third Generation Mobile Multimedia Services

Purpose of this paper is to define a simple conceptual model of market dynamics which attempts to predict the market consequences of 3G mobile service design decisions. The market dynamics model described is the output of a value/choice model based on factors that affect adoption of Third Generation mobile multimedia services. The superior research question is: given full awareness and equal availability (marketing strength, etc.) of services with given characteristics, what fraction of a representative subpopulation would prefer each service? The paper applies some of the tools econometricians (Choffrey & Lilien,1980; Shocker & Srinivasan, 1979;Hauser & Urban, 1977; Oren, Ronthkopf & Smallwood,1980) have developed to the problem of constructing choice theoretic market forecasts from experimental data. In this article, we: (1) first describe the homogeneous segments of mobile users population emerging from a quantitative survey conducted in Italy on a sample of 1000 mobile users, (2) present a brief overview of 3G mobile multimedia services forecasting system, (3) describe the dynamics model in that system. For ease both of explanation and of generalization, the dynamics model description is done in three phases: a. the value proposition model, b. the choice model, c. a simplified version of the dynamics model. (4) discuss the validation of the model applying it to a specific case study: TIM (Telecom Italia Mobile) adopters of MMS news in Italy. We concentrate in this article on more innovative uses of choice theory in the analysis of experimental market research data