The impact of interdependence trends on military aggression. russian-georgian and russian-ukrainian conflicts: a comparative analysis

Summary: The focus of this bachelor thesis evolves around complex and economic interdependence between two countries and its influence on diadic conflicts. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the interdependence ties between Russia-Georgia, Russia-Ukraine, Georgia-European Union, and Ukraine-European Union, and to learn if the intensity and patterns of economic interactions has an effect on conflict. In line with the object of the analysis the methods used are process-tracing, as well as a comparative analysis between Georgia and Ukraine interdependence arrangements and their impact on military interventions. The data used in the research is collected from various national as well as international departments and organizations, which were then adjusted to fit the framework of the thesis. After a detailed annual pre-conflict analysis of capital and goods exchanges, the author came to a conlusion that the rise in economic interdependence between Georgia-European Union and Ukraine-European Union and fall of interdependence between Georgia-Russia and Ukraine-Russia has had an impact on military hostilies from Russia directed towards them. The shift from Eastern, Russian-dominated alliances, towards Western economic (European Union) and security (NATO) collectives also shows a salient relationship with the possibility of conflict. To conclude, Russo-Georgian War of 2008, and 2014 Ukraine crisis, have been partly caused by Russia’s receeding influence in the post-soviet region and lessened interdependence measures between these countries, as well as increasing economic and security dialogue of Georgia and Ukraine with European Union and NATO