Application of cartographic methods for estimation of surface changes in the dunes of the curonian spit in 2015 to 2017

Application of Cartographic Methods for Estimation of Surface Changes in the Dunes of the Curonian Spit in 2015 to 2017 The Curonian Spit is a unique natural location, a site of the UNESCO World Heritage List and popular attraction for tourism and recreation. However, various climatic and anthropogenic changes bring about its fast degradation. Not only assessment of actual changes but also creation of future change prognostication models are therefore important. The purpose of this paper was direct measurement of dunes of the Curonian Spit, assessment of changes and creation of a method for prognostication of continuing dynamic processes. The main purpose of this paper is direct measurement of dunes of the Curonian Spit, assessment of changes and creation of a method for prognostication of continuing dynamic processes. The paper consists of an introduction, three sections, conclusions and proposals, list of sources, summaries in Lithuanian and English, and annexes. The preparation of the paper involved various activities: analysis and overview of previous publications, creation of a work method, analysis of measurement data, and preparation of conclusions. First of all, the research involved analysis of publications and cartographic materials issued in Poland, France and Germany for which dune changes are a very important issue. Monitoring has been carried out in France since 1617 and in Germany since 1200. Processes in dunes have become no less important since then and are subject to continual analysis and monitoring in many countries. Dunes of the Curonian Spit have been mapped not on a continual basis in Lithuania. Detailed mapping works which may be subject to many-sided analysis were carried out in 1910 to 1911 and 1955 to 1956. Dune research has been fragmentary since 1955. Prior to direct measurement, measurement methods and instruments were thoroughly analyzed, three major research areas selected (Great, Naglių and Parnidžio Dunes), a measurement method formed, and (four) measurement techniques (anchor points, direct and meteorological measurements, and aerial photography) and data analysis techniques were selected in the methodological section of the paper. Massive data were collected during direct measurement of the mapped territories: coordinates (X, Y, and Z) were established for more than 17,000 points, about 500 aerial images taken, more than 4,000 meteorological data lines generated, 28 anchor point photographs taken, and 28 samples taken for granulometric analysis. Data analysis was carried out in four aspects: 2-D model possibilities, distant research model possibilities, meteorological factor influence, and spatial model possibilities. The solid data amount guarantees preciseness of analysis and modelling. Digital visualization possibilities were demonstrated upon analysis (horizontal changes in landscape elements were shown, blown out / blown in dune sand volume calculated, average sand layer depth assessed, comparative cross-sections of surface changes in selected places made, a 2-D and 3-D contour model created, and changed in the mapped territory visualized). The results of research are important for Curonian Spit dune change assessment and will be helpful for creation of dune movement prognostication models