Mortality trends from external causes among urban and rural cohorts in lithuania, 1967-2006

MORTALITY TRENDS FROM EXTERNAL CAUSES AMONG URBAN AND RURAL COHORTS IN LITHUANIA 1967 - 2006 62 pages, 32 graphics, 2 tables. Keywords: age – period – cohort analysis, mortality, trends, suicide, vehicle accidents. Research aim: The aim of this study was to examine particular trends of mortality from suicide and vehicle accidents during 40 years period subject to sex and place of residence. The tasks of the research work were as follows: To calculate basic parameters of mortality trends - age, period and cohorts and detect their influence to the process; To analyze two most important factors to variation for each cause of the death and to simulate this along factors' influence to the procces subject to sex and place of residence. To find out how subsequent mortality rates vary in each cohort quinquennial interval, what is the difference of these curves levels in different cohorts and how they differ between sex and place of residence. Methods: Deaths due to suicides and vehicle accidents in the period from 1967 through 2006 and the corresponding population figures were grouped into 17 age groups and 8 5-year periods. These were fitted to Poisson regression models to assess age, period, and cohort effects. Results: Both women's and men's mortality trends from suicides increased dramatically through analyzed period. Trends of urban women's suicide mortality have decreased, except increasing trends of the elderly. Urban men's population had experienced increasing trends from suicide, except three youngest age groups. Lithuanian mortality trends of rural population are rising and that is the difference from urban decreasing trends. Rate of young rural men's mortality from vehicle accidents is 2 - 4 times larger than of other population. Decreasing trend for urban women's population was identified. Conclusion: The research revealed considerable uneven from analyzed causes of death subject to sex between Lithuanian rural and urban population. There were highlighted most effected generations which indicates objective age groups and cohorts that have to be payed special attention when planning prevention programmes