On Development and Investigation of Stock-Exchange Model

A simple Stock Market Game Model (SEGM) was introduced in 2002 by J. Mockus to simulate the behavior of several stockholders trading a single stock. In contrast, the proposed model PORTFOLIO is simulating stock exchange including a number of different stocks. The objective of PORTFOLIO is not forecasting, but simulation of stock exchange processes that are affected by predictions of the participants. The main improvements are the multi-stock extension and a number of different trading rules, which represent both the heuristics of potential investors and the well-known theoretical investment strategies. This makes the model more realistic and allows the portfolio optimization in the space of investment strategies, in both the historical and virtual environments. This is an essential improvement comparing with traditional single-stock models with direct interaction of investment agents. The \"virtual\" stock exchange can help in testing the assumption of rational investor behavior vs. the recent theories that explain financial markets by irrational responses of major market participants. The model has been compared with actual financial time series and found the results to be close in some cases. The model is designed as a tool to represent behavior of individual investor, which wants to predict how the expected profit depends on different investment rules using different forecasting methods of real and virtual stocks