Prediction of long-term success of orthopedic treatment in skeletal Class III malocclusions

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the long-term success of orthopedic treatment in skeletal Class III malocclusions, established a model to predict its long-term success, and verified previously reported success rates and prediction models. METHODS: Fifty-nine patients who underwent successful facemask treatment and were followed until growth completion were evaluated. After completion of growth, the patients were divided into successful and unsuccessful groups according to overjet, overbite, and facial profile. Pretreatment cephalometric measurements were compared between groups, and logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of long-term success. Four previously published articles were selected to verify the success rate and predictability of the prediction models with regard to our patient sample. RESULTS: The treatment success rate was 62.7%. The AB-mandibular plane angle, Wits appraisal, and the articular angle were identified as predictors. The success rates differed according to success criteria and patient characteristics. The prediction models proposed by the 4 previous studies and our study showed similar predictabilities (61.0%-64.4%) for our patient sample. The predictability for the unsuccessful group was low. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that no particular method or factor can predict the long-term success of orthopedic treatment for skeletal Class III malocclusion.restrictio