[[alternative]]The determinants of Xi Jinping's policy on Taiwan

碩士[[abstract]]中共自1949年以來，對台政策基調即圍繞「一個中國｣原則，自鄧小平提出「和平統一、一國兩制」的對台政策後，歷任領導人更是依循此中心思想提出對台政策方向。2012年「十八大」後，習近平成為中共第五代領導人，有別於過去領導人，習受其經歷影響，更加重視「制度化」、「法治化」，特別是在對台事務上有著更豐富的經驗。習主政初期，大抵呈現「胡規習隨」，除堅持「九二共識」為兩岸交流對話的政治基礎外，並持續推動對台經貿、文化的多元交流。 2016年台灣及美國總統大選皆出現政黨輪替，民進黨蔡英文政府、美國共和黨川普政府的執政，勢必對中共的對台政策產生更多變數及影響，總統蔡英文當選後，雖未承認「九二共識」，但宣示將在中華民國的憲法架構下、以及既有基礎上持續推動兩岸關係發展，惟中共認為「九二共識」是雙方的共同基礎，沒有「九二共識」將會導致協商中斷，「九二共識」亦從「議題」轉變成為「前提」，蔡政府能否把握兩岸發展的新穎性，進而創造新形勢下的新基礎，殊值吾人持續關注之焦點。 本論文採用文獻分析法與比較研究法，探討1949年毛澤東建立中共政權開始至胡錦濤時期的對台政策，以及習近平主政後到2017年上半年間的涉台言論與對台工作重點，並從兩岸的內、外部因素，以及美國的兩岸政策等層面進行研究分析，探究中共在面對我新政府執政後可能對台政策的發展方向。[[abstract]]Since 1949, PRC’s Taiwan policy is based on the "One China principle". After Deng Xiaoping proposed the fundamental policy of "peaceful reunification,one country with two systems" for Taiwan, all the other successive leaders have proposed their policy direction towards Taiwan according to this central idea. The group led by Xi Jinping came into power since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012. Unlike previous leaders, due to the influences of his past experiences, Xi paid more attention to“systemization” and“legalization”. In addition to that,he has rich experiences in Taiwan related affairs.Since Xi has been in power, he mainly followed Hu’s rules that adhered to the "1992 consensus" as the political basis of cross-strait dialogue and continued to promote economic and culture exchanges with Taiwan. There were presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2016. Both of them have been through the political party rotation at that time. Certainly it would make some impacts and variables on the CPC policy toward Taiwan because of the DPP Tsai Ingwen government and the United Republican Trump government. Although Tsai did not recognize the "1992 Consensus" after the election, she declared that the government would continue to promote the development of cross-strait relations under the framework of the Constitution of Republic of China and on the basis of the existing situation. However, the CPC considered that the "1992 Consensus" was the common ground of both sides. It will lead to the interruption of consultation without the "1992 consensus".In this way,it has become a "premise" rather than a "topic".Hence, much more sustained attention would be put on Tsai government that whether it is able to grasp the novelty of cross-strait development and create a new situation under the new situation. This paper adopts the literature analysis and comparative research method in order to discuss the policies toward Taiwan from the beginning of CPC regime in 1949 that established by Mao Zedong to Hu Jintao''s day,along with the research of Taiwan-related speeches and the work priorities of Taiwan in the first half of 2017 from Xi Jingping.Then explore and analyze the development direction of CPC policy toward Taiwan in the face of the new government from the aspects of internal and external factors,the US cross-strait policy,and so on.[[tableofcontents]]目錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1 一、研究動機 1 二、研究目的 2 第二節 研究範圍與研究限制 3 一、研究範圍 3 二、研究限制 3 第三節 研究途徑與研究方法 4 第四節 研究架構與章節安排 6 第二章 中共歷屆領導人對台政策之發展 8 第一節 毛澤東時期 8 第二節 鄧小平時期 12 第三節 江澤民時期 16 第四節 胡錦濤時期 22 第三章 習近平時期對台政策 26 第一節 習近平的治國理念 27 第二節 中共「十八大」後對台政策 36 第三節 「中共中央對台工作領導小組」佈局 50 第四章 影響習近平對台政策之因素 62 第一節 中共內部因素 62 第二節 台灣的內部形勢 70 第三節 美國的兩岸政策 82 第五章 結論 91 參考文獻 95 附錄 習近平時期涉台談話要點 106 圖表目錄 圖表 1研究架構圖 6 圖表 2中共對台工作組織架構圖 51 表次 表格 1「中共中央對台工作領導小組」現任組織人員: 53 表格 2「台辦」現任組織人員: 55 表格 3「台辦」下轄職能機構: 55 表格 4「海協會」現任組織人員: 58 表格 5「兩會」重要協商整理表: 59[[note]]學號: 704270114, 學年度: 10