[[alternative]]Applying Data Mining Technologies for Bus Transfer Strategies Evaluation

[[abstract]]為了提倡大眾運輸使用，台北市自捷運開通即提供轉乘優惠，隨著悠遊卡的普及，轉乘優惠的實施，大眾運輸使用率逐年成長。過去，曾有研究探討捷運與公車雙向轉乘優惠，但卻鮮少針對同是大眾運輸的公車之間轉乘做探討。以大眾運輸為導向是未來之願景，為了提供更完善的運具間轉乘，提升大眾運輸使用率，因此，對於公車之間的轉乘，確具有研究價值的空間。 本研究首先以悠遊卡資料庫為基礎，並配合公車路線資料庫進行資料探勘，探討搭乘公車轉乘旅客之特性。再透過因素分析萃取出影響旅客搭乘公車轉乘主要因素為路線與票價，此結果顯示選擇“搭乘“公車的乘客以旅運起迄點便利為主。本研究利用價格彈性分析影響票價因素，結果顯示其彈性值為0.60，因此，本研究認為轉乘政策是彌補民眾的轉乘懲罰。 本研究依據探勘結果的特性進行情境分析。分為全面轉乘優惠、棋盤式路網與身份轉乘優惠三種情境。研究結果發現，在棋盤式路網中，搭乘社區型路線轉乘至其他路線是必要行為，因此提供轉乘優惠可彌補乘客因受到轉乘所帶來的不便感，鼓勵民眾使用大眾運輸來達到旅次目的。幹線部份由於無法彌補民眾因受到轉乘所帶來的不便感，因此更需要補貼。本研究為探討公車間轉乘優惠之可行性，可供政府在大眾運輸政策與轉乘優惠之決策參考。 Since the opening of the Taipei MRT, transfer discounts were given to users by the government so as to help boost up the use of public transport. With the Easy card and the transfer concessions, the usage of public transport has grown year by year. In the past, two-way study has been done to investigate the MRT and bus transfer concessions, but rarely for the same is done to explore the transfer between public transport buses. Assuming that public transport is the future-oriented vision, and having the goal of increasing the transfer between the public transportation, this study focuses on doing research on the transfer concessions between buses. In this study, we use the easy card database as the foundation, together with the bus route data library to do the data mining. We explored the characteristics of a short bus ride Travelodge. Through factor analysis, it is shown that passengers’ bus ride routes and the fares are the main factors to whether people will take public transport. Using price elasticity analysis, it is shown that the elasticity is 0.60; therefore showing that the transfer discount does not affect passenger’s decision. Rather, it serves as remedies for the inconvenience caused by the bus transfers. Following the result of data mining, we make some scenarios analysis. We tested three scenarios--overall, grid bus network, and passenger category. In the scenarios of grid bus network transfer fare discount, it’s necessary to transfer another routes when passengers took community routes. So provide the discount fare can cover the inconvenience caused by the bus transfer. It encourage passengers use public transportation more. For main routes, it’s hard for cover the inconvenience caused by the bus transfer. So they need subsidy. This study provides the possibility of transferring between buses fare discount, and it may take the model of the public transportation policy and transfer fare discount policy.[[notice]]補正完