[[alternative]]Globalization and Transitions of Population Structure and Labor Market in Taiwan

計畫編號：NSC101-2420-H032-001-MY2 研究期間：201201~201212 研究經費：357,000[[abstract]]本子計畫主要在探討我國之全球化現象與人口結構改變對區域間人口遷移、所得分 配及勞工之教育報酬率的影響。本子計畫為一個三年期的計畫，共分為三個相關之子 題：(1)「全球化與我國區域人口遷移：Zipf 法則之探討與應用」；(2)「我國人口老化 對區域所得分配之影響」；(3)「全球化對我國教育報酬率與所得分配的影響」，分別由 每一年期來完成。 由於近一、二十年來網路科技的進步，加速的全球化使得區域與區域間的聯繫成本 大為降低，我們可以預期人們居住的地區不再需要集中於大城市。然而許多的證據卻 顯示，目前世界上大城市的人口成長率仍遠高於鄉村地區，尤其是在開發中的國家更 為明顯。此種現象亦發生在我國的區域間的人口結構。本研究計畫擬透過Zipf 法則的 分析架構，首先探討我國過去幾十年來人口在都市與鄉村分布的變動情況，進而由Zipf 法則的計量模型之實證估計値在各年度的變動情況，探討我國的全球化對區域間人口 遷移的影響。在探討完區域間人口遷移的現象之後，本研究計畫將繼續分析我國各區 域人口老化不齊一的現象。我們進一步以空間計量之實證模型來探討我國人口老化與 所得分配之間的關聯性。除此之外，尚針對人口老化之因素對我國各縣市之間所得收 斂的變化做進一步的剖析。最後，本計畫將持續探討全球化因素對我國勞動市場之就 業勞工薪資之影響。本研究擬從全球化的角度來看這個議題，以一相對排名的全球化 指標來分析我國全球化的快速成長對我國勞動市場中勞工教育報酬率的影響。透過實 證模型的分析，我們亦可以看出全球化的因素在我國的勞工之所得不均度逐年擴大所 扮演的角色。[[abstract]]This research project intends to analyze the effects of globalization on the transitions of population structure and the outcomes of labor market in Taiwan. It is a 3-year project, which composes of the following three parts: (1) effect of globalization on Taiwan’s regional population migration using the application of Zipf’s Law; (2) the effect of population aging on Taiwan’s regional income distribution; (3) the effect of globalization on Taiwan’s return to education and wage gap. Each part will be completed within a year respectively. First, due to the recent accelerating technology progress, globalization has been making the transportation cost between regions decrease dramatically. It is expected that people do not have to be agglomerated living in big cities. However, evidence shows that the growth of population living in big cities is still much faster than that in rural areas, especially for developing countries. Taiwan indeed displays the similar phenomenon in recent years. We try to use the econometric framework of Zipf’s Law to investigate the transition of regional migration in Taiwan for the last two decades and further analyze the effect of globalization on the transition. Second, we also observe that the rapid population aging is an unneglectable issue in Taiwan. However, the aging does not show a similar pattern among Taiwan’s 23 regions, which coincides with the pattern of regional income distribution in recent years. We try to employ spatial panel econometric models, which can catch the spillover effect of regional variables, to analyze the effects of population aging on region income distribution and the issue of regional income convergence. Last, following the implications from the first two parts, we continue to investigate the effect of globalization on return to education in Taiwan’s labor market by using a relative ranking of Globalization Index. The results of this part can also imply the role of globalization on Taiwan’s widening wage gap in recent years.[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員