[[alternative]]A Study on the Metropolis Inundation Scenario Simulation Caused by Extreme Storm：Main and Sub-Project: Extreme Storm Scenario Analysis and Its Rainfall-Runoff Simulation (I)

[[abstract]]台灣具有特殊之地理位置、地形與天然氣候等條件，再加上近年來全球暖化及氣候變遷等因素，愈形加劇氣候異常之發生機率與增大極端暴雨事件規模。這些極端異常暴雨一旦發生在大台北都會區，使得河川洪水位與市區排水超出既有之防洪、排水設計標準，造成堤防溢堤、破堤或抽排系統功能喪失等複合型災害發生，將嚴重威脅大台北都會區約500 萬人口之生命財產安全，並極易引發如美國卡崔娜(Katrina)颶風侵襲後之嚴重社會失序問題。因此，強化都市地區極端暴雨之相關災害防治與應變能力等非工程之預警方法，仍為現階段洪災科技發展之重點課題。本計畫擬以台北都會區為研究對象，模擬都會區上游山區發生各種延時之可能最大降雨，引致淡水河、基隆河、景美溪等河川瓶頸地段堤防發生多處溢破堤狀況，而平地都會區內又遭逢短延時之極端降雨強度暴雨侵襲，引致抽排水系統喪失功能等共伴之複合型淹水境況。本整合型計畫預計以三年期間完成台灣地區極端暴雨模擬模式，應用降雨—逕流模式模擬大台北都會區多種極端暴雨虛擬情境之流量，並結合堤防溢堤或破堤洪流演算模式、地表淹水模擬模式及排水系統分匯流之數值模式，完成台北都會區在遭遇極端暴雨侵襲而發生超過設計標準之情況下所可能發生之複合型災害模擬，最終完成極端暴雨情境分析之淹水境況模擬展示系統，提供相關單位防救災緊急應變演練上之參考與應用。[[abstract]]Owing to its special geographical, territorial, and climatical endowments, plus recent global warming and climate change effects, Taiwan is prone to suffer frequent climate abnormality and larger-than-normal extreme storm events. Should these extreme events happen in Taipei Municipal Area, drainage facilities designed to cover normal events might be dysfunctional, which in turn cause serious social and economic problems as Hurricane Katrina did in New Orleans. Enhancing non-engineering warning methods and emergency response capabilities for extreme storm events have been a key issue in disaster preventing technology development. Mainly targeted in Taipei Municipal Area, this project simulates various compound inundations situations. Compound inundation are caused by both levy overflow in the upstream areas, such as in Tamsui River, Keelong River, and JinMai River bottleneck sectors, and draining failures in the downstream areas when it suffers short-duration, high intensity storm attacks. This integrated research project intends to accomplish extreme storm event simulation models, extreme storm events mathematical models by employing rainfall-runoff, storm discharge computation, and overland flow and drainage computation model, compound disaster simulation when Taipei Municipal Areas is suffering extreme events, and finally the display system for extreme storm events for disaster preventing and emergency response purposes.[[sponsorship]]國科會永續發展研究推動委員會[[conferencetype]]國內[[conferencedate]]20090203~20080104[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]臺北市, 臺