[[alternative]]臺灣北部水資源永續之研究

碩士[[abstract]]本研究範圍以台灣北部為主，本區水資源因雨量豐沛且流量豐枯比約為6比4，較為平均，且現有蓄水設施容量亦堪稱充足，且基礎設施較為完善。但此地區亦有缺水高風險區如桃園及新竹地區，為使水資源供需平衡，如何運用現有之水資源設施及開發新興水資源為本研究討論之重要議題。 本研究以不抽取地下水為原則，因抽取地下水可能會造成地成下陷等不可回復之問題，其次，推估出未來10年北部地區各需水量，包括：生活用水、產業用水、農業用水及保育用水之各類成長，並參考國內外之新興水資源指標(包含：新興攔河堰、海水淡化廠、新生水廠、自來水管線汰舊換新、雨水收集等)利用上述之供水指標供水量平衡需水指標之需水量並推估其成本，建立模式後代入LINGO模擬，討論是否滿足整體達到供需平衡，再計算其所耗費之最小成本。以不計成本的方式估算新興水資源及修復漏水率等相關問題所耗費之最佳成本效益，提供政府未來對於北部地區水資源利用之最佳策略。[[abstract]]The purpose of this study focus on mainly in northern Taiwan, the area of water resources more evenly due to abundant rainfall and the ratio of Wet and Dry about 6 to 4, sufficient capacity of existing storage facilities and infrastructure more complete. However, this area also have High-risk water-scarce regions such as Taoyuan and Hsinchu area, for the water supply and demand balance, how to use existing facilities and the development of new water resources as an important topic of discussion. In this study, the principle is non-extraction of groundwater, estimate the northern region of the water demand next 10 years. Reference emerging Water Resource indicators in domestic and overseas including: Emerging Diversion Weir, desalination plants, new water, replace old water pipeline new ones, rainwater harvesting, etc. Estimate the cost to build simulation models offspring into LINGO software to discuss whether to meet the overall demand for water, calculate the cost of their minimum cost. And the way that estimate the cost and repair water leakage rate emerging issues is related to the cost of the most cost-effective, providing the government that water use for the northern region of the optimal strategy in the future.[[tableofcontents]]目錄 中文摘要........................................................................................................................ I Abstract ......................................................................................................................... II 目錄................................................................................................................................ i 表目錄.......................................................................................................................... iii 圖目錄............................................................................................................................ v 第一章前言............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究動機 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究內容與流程 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.4 研究區域 ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 行政區域 .................................................................................................................. 4 1.4.2 流域分區 ................................................................................................................. 4 1.4.3 供水分區 .................................................................................................................. 5 第二章 文獻回顧.................................................................................................... 6 2.1 相關文獻蒐集 ................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 水資源用水需求指標 ..................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 生活用水 ................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.2 產業用水 ............................................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 農業用水推估 ....................................................................................................... 23 2.2.4 保育用水 ................................................................................................................ 25 2.3 目標年自來水需求量評估 ........................................................................................... 26 2.4 供水現況及特性 ........................................................................................................... 27 2.4.1 地表水 .................................................................................................................... 27 ii 2.4.2 地下水 .................................................................................................................... 33 2.4.3 地層下陷狀況 ........................................................................................................ 35 2.5 北部地區有效水資源總量 ........................................................................................... 37 2.6 北部區域水資源設施及利用現況 ............................................................................... 38 2.7 自來水管汰舊換新 ....................................................................................................... 42 2.8 海水淡化廠 ................................................................................................................... 44 2.9 新生水廠 ....................................................................................................................... 46 2.10 雨水收集系統 ............................................................................................................. 50 第三章 研究方法.................................................................................................. 53 3.1 軟體應用 ....................................................................................................................... 53 3.2 綜合台灣北部之歷年供需總水量及水資源問題探討 .............................................. 54 3.3 決策討論 ....................................................................................................................... 55 3.4 決策情境假設 ............................................................................................................... 55 3.5 模式建構 ....................................................................................................................... 56 3.5.2 參數解說 ............................................................................................................... 57 3.5.3 限制式解說 ........................................................................................................... 58 第四章 研究結果.................................................................................................. 59 4.1 模式情境假設條件 ....................................................................................................... 59 4.2 情境與方案緒論 .......................................................................................................... 62 4.3 小結 ............................................................................................................................... 82 第五章 結論與建議.............................................................................................. 83 5.1 結論 ............................................................................................................................... 83 5.2 建議 ............................................................................................................................... 85 參考文獻...................................................................................................................... 86 iii 表目錄 表 2-1 北部地區目標年人口推估量 .......................................................................... 11 表2-2 北部地區目標年各用水分區之目標年抄見率 .............................................. 11 表2-3 北部區域之目標年每人每日用水量推估 ..................................................... 12 表2-4 北部地區之目標年用水普及率推估表 ......................................................... 13 表2-5 北部地區用水分區之目標年生活用水水源需求量(趨勢量) ....................... 14 表2-6 北部地區地區現有產業用地 .......................................................................... 16 表2-7 現有產業用地之目標年水源需求量推估 ..................................................... 17 表2-8 開發中產業區之目標年用水需求量表 ......................................................... 19 表2-9 已編定或編定中產業區之目標年用水需求量表 .......................................... 20 表2-10 規劃(研議中)產業區之目標年用水需求量表.............................................. 20 表2-11 北部地區電廠營運用水統計及新建或擴增機組需水計畫表 .................... 21 表2-12 北部地區之目標年產業用水需水量_低成長 .............................................. 21 表2-13 北部地區之目標年產業用水需水量_中成長 ............................................. 22 表2-14 北部地區之目標年產業用水需水量_高成長 .............................................. 22 表2-15 北部地區各農田水利會之目標年灌溉需水量 ........................................... 23 表2-16 北部地區各農業用水類別之目標年需水量 ................................................ 24 表2-17 北部地區保育用水需水量估算 .................................................................... 25 表2-18 北部地區目標年用水總量 ............................................................................ 26 表2-19 北部地區流量站之平均流量 ....................................................................... 31 表2-20 台灣地下水各區概況 .................................................................................... 34 表2-21 北部地區地下水使用量 ................................................................................ 35 表2-22 北部地區地表、地下水總量統計表 ............................................................ 37 表2-23 北部區域現有水資源設施基本資料 ............................................................ 39 iv 表2-24 北部區域公共給水水資源量 ....................................................................... 40 表2-25 台灣地區未來水資源開發計畫經費需求表 ................................................ 41 表2-26 民國97-98 年台灣北部自來水漏水率 ......................................................... 43 表2-27 北部區域都市污水處理廠放流水量推估 .................................................... 47 表2-28 北部區域工業廢水放流水量與實際可再生水量推估 ................................ 47 表2-29 北部區域農業迴歸水調查 ........................................................................... 48 表2-30 北部地區各污水處理廠之累積實際進流污水量 ........................................ 48 表2-31 台灣北部雨水潛勢 ....................................................................................... 52 表4-1 各方案之綜合比較表 ...................................................................................... 82 v 圖目錄 圖 1-1 研究流程 ............................................................................................................ 3 圖2-1 生活用水需求推估流程圖 ............................................................................... 9 圖2-2 產業用水推估架構圖 ...................................................................................... 15 圖2-3 北部區域水系相關位置圖 ............................................................................. 27 圖2-4 北部區域雨量站之平均降雨量 ...................................................................... 29 圖2-5 北部地區蒸發站之平均蒸發量 ...................................................................... 30 圖2-6 本研究區域地下水資源分區 .......................................................................... 33 圖2-7 台灣地區地層下陷速率 .................................................................................. 36 圖2-8 台灣地區民國99 年度止地層下陷檢測概況圖 ............................................ 36 圖2-9 北部區域水資源設施位置圖 .......................................................................... 38 圖2-10 雨水收集系統組程示意圖 ............................................................................ 50 圖3-1 民國95 年北部區域天然水資源利用總量 .................................................... 54 圖4-1 方案一各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 66 圖4-2 方案二各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 69 圖4-3 方案三各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 72 圖4-4 方案三各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 75 圖4-5 方案五各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 78 圖4-6 方案六各項策略配水比例圓形圖 .................................................................. 81[[note]]學號: 600480296, 學年度: 10