[[alternative]]中共反介入戰略中巡弋飛彈能力虛實

碩士[[abstract]]1985年的金門砲戰及1996的台海飛彈危機中，美國皆派遣優勢兵力及航空母艦馳援台灣；中國面對如此困局，既無力面對更無力反擊，因此積極尋求及建立解決之道。而「反介入」的概念，就是阻止、延遲或嚇阻其他國家以武力或其他方式插手自己國內的紛爭。70年代後，中國大陸在改革開放的政策帶領下，使其綜合國力快速提升；90年代開始，中國深受「軍事事務革命」與波灣戰爭的啟發，將軍事戰略著眼於質量建設，走「有中國特色的新軍事變革」，以著重打贏高技術局部戰爭的需要，而從整體上提高威懾力量和實戰能力。因此，加強各軍種包括二砲在內的「遠距接戰、精準打擊」能力，將「內向型」的防禦思想轉為「外向型」的積極防禦。 在兩次波灣戰爭後，中國軍方發現巡弋飛彈其構造簡單、造價低廉，在戰術運用上具有超低空及依地形地貌飛行、突穿能力強等特性，亦能機動配置進行快速打擊；不但具有超強實質的破壞殺傷能力，更是具有心理上高度的威嚇功能，因此便積極的進行巡弋飛彈的研發及製造，企圖反制並影響美國及其盟邦在亞太地區的部署。但縱使當前中國在電子及航天技術水準已接進歐、美、日等先進國家；唯在軍事武器裝備上，中國比之美國之武器種類與性能水準仍是遠遠落後，且在短期之內無法追上。 中國持續發展反介入戰略之巡弋飛彈作戰能力，用意與影響已造成亞太地區國家及美國方面的擔憂；但在研究過程中發現，其研發歷程仍以模仿及反向工程方式進行，外型雖已趨近美、日、俄等國先進彈種，唯在諸多核心要點因素及載台研發與改造搭配技術上，仍尚待更進一步突破。但儘管如此，依中國堅毅的學習精神及持續進步的工業技術，相信在不遠的將來，中共反介入戰略中巡弋飛彈能力所扮演的「殺手鐧」角色及「點穴戰」作用，仍是會讓美國及亞太地區國家所擔憂及高度重視的重中之重。[[abstract]]Within the events such as the 823 Artillery Bombardment and the 1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis, the United-States provided superior numbers of forces and fleets of aircraft carriers in assistance of Taiwan. Encountering such predicament, the mainland China was well acknowledged of its shortage of capabilities if confronted with U.S. troops. Therefore, China eagerly seeks and tries to develop a solution toward this dilemma. As a result, the concept of “Anti-access” represents to deter, delay, or intimate other countries to access any kind of civil conflicts by force or other means. Since the 70s, the overall national strength of mainland China has gradually improved contributed by its economy reform strategy. Starting from the 90s, mainland China was also deeply inspired by the “Renovations in Military Affairs” and the Gulf war. This leads to the emphasis in developing qualities of the military strategies, which started the “New military renovation embedded with Chinese characteristics”. With the necessity of prevailing a regional war with high technology factors involved, the improvements on intimidation strengths and its overall combat capabilities have been carried out. Therefore, mainland China has strengthened its abilities in “Long range detection with accurate attack” within all its military forces, which also included the second artillery corps, and turning its defense strategies from an introversive approach to a much aggressive extroversive approach. After two Gulf wars, the PLA has discovered that cruise missiles had series of advantages in simple designs, low-cost in manufacture, and strategic strengths in very low-altitude courses, navigating in different kinds of landscapes, strong penetration abilities and its quick mobilization of deployment in order to conduct a quick strike. Overall, cruise missiles not only have the actual capabilities to destroy and kill, but also have the strength of creating a strong psychological intimation effect. Therefore, the PLA was believed to be going through a rapid research and manufacture on cruise missiles in means of trying to counteract with the U.S’s and its allies’ deployment within the Pacific Rim. However, even though the technological levels in electronics and aviation of mainland China have been close to advanced countries such as the U.S., Japan, and other European countries, its strength and types in military weapons were still way behind the U.S., and won’t be able to catch up within a short-term of time. The mainland China continues to develop its cruise missile abilities to interfere the anti-access strategy, and its determination have brought concerns to its surrounding countries and the U.S.; However, throughout the research we had discovered that its cruise missile researches were based on copying and reverse engineering of existing missiles. Although its shapes were identical to the cutting-edge types produced by the U.S., Japan, and Russia countries, a great technology breakthrough is essential on multiple key factors, development on carrier platforms, and fine tuning the coordination technology. Despite all the difficulties, the Chinese persistency in learning and its unstoppable industrial development, we believed that in the near future, the mainland China’s cruise missiles will play a master role in the implementation of anti-access strategy and acupuncture warfare, becoming the spot light of concern between surrounding countries and the U.S.[[tableofcontents]]《目 錄》 第一章 緒論 ………………………………………1 第一節 研究主題、動機與目的……..……………….…………1 第二節 研究範圍與限制……………..……………….…………6 第三節 研究方法與架構……………..……………….…………8 第四節 概念界定……………………..……………….………..13 第五節 文獻評析……………………..……………….………..14 第二章 中共反介入戰略…………………………28 第一節 中共國防戰略思想演變…..………………….………..29 第二節 中共軍事戰略發展趨勢…..………………….………..33 第三節 中共反介入戰略概念及發..展……………….……..…35 第四節 小結………………………..………………….………..44 第三章 中共巡弋飛彈兵力結構…………………45 第一節 建軍歷程………………….……………………………45 第二節 兵力部署………………….……………………………55 第三節 發展趨勢………………….……………………………58 第四節 小結……………………….……………………………59 第四章 美日相應措施……………………………62 第一節 提升威脅預警能力……….……………………………63 第二節 強化飛彈攔截防線……….……………………………69 第三節 形成反制嚇阻縱深……….……………………………71 第四節 小結……………………….……………………………74 第五章 中共巡弋飛彈作戰能力評估……………77 第一節 中共巡弋飛彈作戰能力與北斗衛星之發展….............77 第二節 美日反制巡弋飛彈能力……………………….......…..82 第三節 各方能力比較…………………………………...……..88 第四節 小結………………………..…………………….....…..92 第六章 結論 ……………………………………95 第一節 研究總結.…………………………..……..………..…..96 第二節 心得與啟示………….………………..……..…..……104 第三節 未來研究方向建議….…………………………..……110 大事紀要 ………………………………………112 參考書目 ………………………………………137 表目錄 表1-1 文獻一覽表…………………………………………………………………………………………………..14 表2-1中共「反介入戰略」中重點打擊目標區分………………………………………………...43 表3-1中共巡弋飛彈型式及性能諸元…………………………………………………………………….51 表3-2共軍二砲部隊駐地及任務目標…………………………………………………………………….57 表4-1近年中共艦船行經日本附近海域統計表……………………………………………………..67 表5-1中共巡弋飛彈能力分析………………………………………………………………………………...93 表6-1重要大事紀（2006.2-2010.9）…………………………………………………………………...112 圖目錄 圖1-1研究架構圖 ………………………………………………………………………………………………11[[note]]學號: 798330097, 學年度: 9