[[alternative]]China's Export Trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment- A Spatial Econometric Study

計畫編號：NSC99-2410-H032-018-MY3 研究期間：201008~201107 研究經費：909,000[[abstract]]第一年計劃選用固定效果模型，以Panel Data方式進行空間計量分析。研究的期間為1991-2008年，包括中國大陸及其對應的出口貿易伙伴40個國家，探討不同時間（18年）和不同區域（40國）與中國大陸的出口貿易關係。 第二年計劃擬利用空間分析方法，探討中國向外直接投資（Outward FDI）的相關宏觀與微觀因素，諸如投資的地區、國家、投資額度等，其投資強度與傾向，以及推動中國向外直接投資的因素（諸如人均GDP、出口、政治風險、技術能力（人力資本）、Inward FDI、地理鄰近度、本國/地主國政府自由化政策）等。 第三年計劃擬建立一個理論架構，分析決定FDI的第三國效果（The third country effect）的可能性，並利用空間計量分析，探討中國大陸對外直接投資與空間連結（Spatial linkage）之間的關係，推估第三國效果是否顯著地影響中國大陸的FDI。[[abstract]]In the first-year project, our study will focus on China’s top 40 export trade partners by using panel data drawn from the period 1991 to 2008 (i.e., 18 years) and explore the related determinants of China’s export trade using a spatial autoregressive distributed model with spatial and time period fixed effects. In the second-year project, we will explore the related macro- and micro- factors which determine China’s outward foreign direct investment. Those factors include the regions and countries of investment, volume of investment, intensity and propensity of investment, and other driven forces for China’s Outward FDI (such as per capita GDP, exports, political risk, human resources, geographic accessibility, liberalization policies pursued by parent and host country governments). In the third-year project, we will set up a theoretical model to show that FDI decisions are multilateral in nature and therefore, the third-country effect should be taken into account. By using spatial econometrics, we will explore the relationship between FDI in China and spatial linkages and test whether third-country effects are important for China’s FDI.[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員