[[alternative]]Analysis of water resources and food shortage crisis

碩士[[abstract]]全球倚賴兩個主要的糧食貯源：一是主要穀類輸出國的貯量，另外是美國政府農業計劃下的惰耕地(idle land)。遇到氣候及市場情況發生變化時，這兩個貯源具有相當大的緩衝作用。 人類大部份的歷史顯示，糧食需求量的增加淵源於人口的成長。目前，世界人口快速增加是個事實，但是，繁榮富裕的增加是提高世界糧食資源需求量的另一重要因素。 當前最迫切需要的是成立一個新的世界食儲備制度，儲糧採全球統合儲備管理，將有助於穩定世界糧食經濟，同時協助確保國際社會有應付糧食危機的能力。 本研究方法從近年的糧食生產量與水資源總供水量以線性迴歸來表示，目的是為了目前最重要的議題：「糧食短缺之危機」與「水資源有限」來加以探討，並以Excel此軟體中的工具列中的資料分析－統計，來得到迴歸方程式。[[abstract]]The world rely on two main sources of food storage: First, the major grain exporting countries, storage, and the other U.S. government farm programs under the idle land. Face climate and market conditions change, these two sources has significant storage buffer. Most of the history of mankind shows that the increase in food demand originated from population growth. At present, the rapid increase in world population is a fact, however, an increase of prosperity is to increase world demand for food resources, another important factor. The most urgent need is to set up a new world food reserve system, stored grain reserve management adopted global integration, will help stabilize the world grain economy and help ensure that the international community to cope with food crisis. The research methods of food production from recent years, the total water supply and water resources by linear regression indicated that the purpose of the most important issues: "the crisis of food shortages" and "limited resources" to be explored, and to Excel The software in the tool bar in the data analysis - statistical, to get the regression equation.[[tableofcontents]]目 錄 中文摘要...........................................................................................................................I 英文摘要......................................................................................................................... II 目 錄............................................................................................................................ III 表 目 錄.........................................................................................................................V 圖 目 錄.......................................................................................................................VII 第一章 前 言................................................................................................................ 1 1-1 論文架構............................................................................................................ 3 1-1.1 論文架構內容......................................................................................... 4 1-2 研究動機與目的................................................................................................ 5 第二章 文獻回顧.......................................................................................................... 7 第三章 糧食與水資源短缺現象.................................................................................. 9 3-1 糧食短缺危機之成因........................................................................................ 9 3-2 水資源短缺危機之成因.................................................................................. 14 第四章、分析方法與結果討論.................................................................................... 19 4-1 糧食數據.......................................................................................................... 19 4-2 水資源數據...................................................................................................... 21 4-3 研究方法與結果.............................................................................................. 29 4-3-1 預測糧食生產量................................................................................... 29 4-3-3 預測未來糧食與水資源之趨勢........................................................... 36 4-4 我國目前及未來施政方針與展望.................................................................. 41 第五章、結論與建議.................................................................................................... 43 附錄................................................................................................................................ 45 1-1 新加坡新生水計畫......................................................................................... 45 1-2 台灣重要水庫詳細資料表.............................................................................. 51 1-3 台灣水庫之農業用水..................................................................................... 53 1-4 現有海水淡化廠概況表 （98 年底） ........................................................... 58 1-5 自來水供水普及率.......................................................................................... 60 1-6 水源調度概況－農田休耕面積...................................................................... 62 參 考 文 獻.................................................................................................................. 63 表 目 錄 表4-1.1 88~97 年糧食產量圖.................................................................................... 19 表4-2.3 民國92 年水資源供需統計表..................................................................... 23 表4-2.6 民國95 年水資源供需統計表..................................................................... 26 表4-3-1.2 糧食迴歸統計表.......................................................................................... 31 表4-3-1.3 糧食ANOVA摘要表.................................................................................. 31 表4-3-1.4 糧食ANOVA摘要表（續1）................................................................... 31 表4-3-1.5 糧食殘差輸出表.......................................................................................... 32 表4-3-2.2 迴歸統計表.................................................................................................. 34 表4-3-2.3 總供水量ANOVA摘要表.......................................................................... 34 表4-3-2.4 糧食ANOVA摘要表（續1）................................................................... 34 表4-3-2.5 總供水量殘差輸出表................................................................................... 35 表4-3-3.1 預測糧食生產量未來十年趨勢................................................................... 37 表4-3-3.2 預測總供水量未來十年趨勢....................................................................... 37 表4-3-3.3 90~97 年農業生產指數............................................................................. 39 表附錄1-2.1 我國台灣各縣市重要水庫資料表......................................................... 51 表附錄1-2.2 我國台灣各縣市重要水庫資料表（續1） .......................................... 52 表附錄1-3.1 石門水庫簡介表..................................................................................... 53 表附錄1-3.2 鯉魚潭水庫簡介表................................................................................. 53 表附錄1-3.3 永和山水庫簡介表................................................................................. 54 表附錄1-3.4 明德水庫簡介表..................................................................................... 54 表附錄1-3.5 德基水庫簡介表..................................................................................... 55 表附錄1-3.6 石岡壩水庫簡介表................................................................................. 55 表附錄1-3.7 曾文水庫簡介表..................................................................................... 56 表附錄1-3.8 烏山頭水庫簡介表................................................................................. 56 表附錄1-3.9 牡丹水庫簡介表..................................................................................... 56 表附錄1-5.1 自來水供水普及率.................................................................................. 60 VI 表附錄1-5.2 自來水供水普及率.................................................................................. 61 表附錄1-6.1 近年農田休耕面積表.............................................................................. 62 圖 目 錄 圖1-1.1 研究架構圖..................................................................................................... 3 圖4-1.1 近十年我國農業發展趨勢............................................................................. 20 圖4-1.2 近十年我國農產品進出口質易值................................................................. 20 圖4-3-1.1 Excel圖表，第一步驟圖.............................................................................. 29 圖4-3-1.2 步驟2，資料分析中選擇迴歸................................................................... 30 圖4-3-1.3 糧食線性迴歸統計圖.................................................................................. 30 圖4-3-2.1 總供水量線性迴歸統計圖.......................................................................... 33 圖4-3-3.1 糧食樣本迴歸線圖....................................................................................... 36 圖4-3-3.2 供水量樣本迴歸線圖.................................................................................. 36 圖4-3-3.3 糧食與供水量之預測十年趨勢圖.............................................................. 38 圖4-3-3.4 台灣稻米種植面積與產量變化................................................................... 40 圖附錄1-1.1 七星園區用水回收示意圖..................................................................... 49 圖附錄1-1.2 台中科學園各區位置圖......................................................................... 50[[note]]學號: 697480274, 學年度: 9