[[alternative]]The influence of exchange rate volatility on the operating performance of enterprises : an empirical study on electronic connector companies listed on the Taiwan stock exchange

碩士[[abstract]]一直以來，國際貿易是台灣經濟發展主要的趨動力，為了促進經濟成長及發揮規模經濟效益，代工出口導向的經濟型態遂成為台灣經濟發展上之主流。 台灣出口產品結構中，多以電子、資訊周邊等技術密集性較高的產品為主，根據資策會產業情報研究所(MIC)統計，2008年PC等眾多資通訊產品的全球占有率均排名第一，此類產品之出貨地區多分布在西歐、北美等地區，生產據點也以中國大陸等境外地區為主，如此一來，匯率將扮演著經貿活動重要關鍵的角色。 連接器的應用範圍相當廣泛，已普遍運用於每個電子產品，台灣在全球占有率均排名第一之主要的出口重點產品，均需要使用連接器，可見連接器在電子產業中占有非常重要的地位。而連接器的出口比重超過五成以上，多數的收益以外幣計價的情形下，預期匯率波動將影響連接器產業之獲利及經營績效的表現。 本研究主要在探討台灣電子連接器產業中，匯率波動與廠商經營績效之影響關係，透過實證研究分析，以檢視匯率波動和電子連接器廠商的總資產報酬率(ROA)、股東權益報酬率(ROE)及每股盈餘(EPS)是否存在任何相關性。本研究以19家台灣上市上櫃電子連接器廠商為研究對象，取2004~2008年為研究期間，共計95個樣本數；實證模型中之解釋變數包含匯率波動值、廠商別控制變數與總體經濟控制變數，廠商別控制變數設定為廠商之成立年資、資本額與技術層次，而總體經濟變數為OECD會員國之實質經濟成長率與國際銅價兩項指標；被解釋變數則以總資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率和每股盈餘三種指標，作為企業經營績效的衡量指標。 實證結果發現，匯率波動對於台灣上市上櫃電子連接器廠商之經營績效ROA、ROE與EPS均呈現顯著的負相關。廠商控制變數方面，連接器廠商的資本額與經營績效ROE、EPS為顯著的正相關；連接器廠商的成立年資對經營績效EPS呈現負相關；連接器廠商技術層次對經營績效ROA、ROE及EPS均為顯著的正相關。而總體經濟控制變數方面，國際銅價對電子連接器廠商經營績效ROA、ROE與EPS均呈現顯著的負相關；經濟成長率對電子連接器廠商經營績效ROA、ROE和EPS則是無任何顯著的影響關係。[[abstract]]International trade has long been a driving force behind Taiwan''s economic development. In order to stimulate economic growth and create economies of scale, an economic structure oriented towards contract production and exports has moved to the forefront in the country''s economic development. Taiwan''s exports consist for a large part of technology-intensive products such as electronics and IT peripheral products. According to statistics of the Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), in 2008 Taiwanese industry''s shipment volume ranked first in the world for a significant number of ICT products, including PCs. These products are mainly shipped to regions such as Western Europe and North America. Production mainly takes places in overseas locations such as China. Therefore, currency exchange rates play an important role in economic and trade activities. The application scope of connectors is very broad. They are generally used in all types of electronics products. All the major export products in which Taiwan leads the world in terms of shipment volume require the use of connectors, highlighting the importance of connectors in the electronics industry. More than 50% of connectors made by the Taiwanese industry are exported to overseas destinations. With a large share of connector revenue calculated in foreign currencies, it is expected that exchange rate volatility impact the profits and operational performance of the connector industry. This research focuses on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and manufacturers'' operational performance in the connector industry. Based on empirical research, this thesis analyzes whether a relationship exists between exchange rate volatility and connector manufacturers'' Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Earnings Per Share (EPS). 19 listed Taiwanese connector manufacturers were examined as part of this research, and the time-period chosen for analysis was 2004-2008. 95 samples were generated. Explanatory variables in the empirical model include exchange rate fluctuations, individual manufacturer control variables and the overall economy control variables. Individual manufacturer control variables include companies'' years of existence, capital size, and technology levels. The overall economy variables are real economic growth rates of OECD member countries and international copper prices. As for explained variables, ROA, ROE, and EPS are used as indicators of operational performance. The empirical research results show that there is a clearly negative relationship between currency exchange rate volatility and ROA, ROE, EPS of listed Taiwanese electronics companies. As for control variables, there is a clearly positive relationship between connector companies'' capital size and ROE and EPS. There is a negative relationship between manufacturers'' years of existence and EPS. A significantly positive relationship is observed between technology levels of connector manufacturers and ROA, ROE, and EPS. Regarding overall economy control variables, a considerably negative relationship exists between international copper prices and ROA, ROE, EPS. No clear relationship was found between the economic growth rate and ROA, ROE, EPS.[[tableofcontents]]目錄 目 錄 I 圖 目 錄 III 表 目 錄 IV 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究內容與架構 5 第三節 文獻回顧 7 第二章 連接器產業動態與發展趨勢 17 第一節 全球連接器產業概況 19 第二節 台灣連接器產業概況 22 第三節 連接器產品暨廠商發展趨勢 26 第三章 新台幣兌美元匯率概況與分析 28 第一節 匯率定義 28 第二節 匯率制度的發展沿革 30 第三節 新台幣匯率之幣值走勢分析 36 第四章 實證模型 44 第一節 變數定義與說明 44 第二節 實證模型設立 49 第三節 資料來源、估計方法說明 50 第五章 實證研究分析 53 第一節 匯率波動對連接器廠商總資產報酬率(ROA)的實證結果 55 第二節 匯率波動對連接器廠商股東權益報酬率(ROE)的實證結果 59 第三節 匯率波動對連接器廠商每股盈餘(EPS)的實證結果 64 第四節 匯率波動對經營績效影響效果之驗證 68 第六章 結論與建議 72 第一節 結論 72 第二節 建議 76 參考文獻 78 圖目錄 圖1-1 台灣資通訊產品全球占有率 2 圖1-2 本研究架構 6 圖2-1 連接器產業上、中、下游關聯圖 17 圖2-2 全球連接器產值之變化趨勢 19 圖2-3 全球連接器各區域市場比重 21 圖3-1 民國78年至民國97年之新台幣匯率走勢圖 36 表目錄 表1-1 2006~2010年台灣連接器產業產值規模與全球排名 4 表2-1 台灣連接器生產統計 23 表2-2 2007年台灣連接器產值分佈 24 表2-3 台灣電線及電纜連接器與接頭出口統計 25 表2-4 台灣電線及電纜連接器與接頭之前五大出口地區比重統計 25 表3-1 78~97年間之新台幣幣值走勢及其影響因素彙總表 42 表3-1 78~97年間之新台幣幣值走勢及其影響因素彙總表-續 43 表4-1 連接器主要廠商之成本結構 48 表4-2 變數資料來源 51 表4-3 被解釋變數及解釋變數之敘述統計表 52 表5-1 各解釋變數之相關係數表 53 表5-2 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效ROA之影響 55 表5-3 國內主要連接器廠商營運概況 58 表5-4 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效ROE之影響 59 表5-5 正崴財務概況 63 表5-6 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效EPS之影響 64 表5-7 凡甲財務概況 67 表5-8 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效ROA之驗證結果 69 表5-9 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效ROE之驗證結果 70 表5-10 匯率波動對連接器廠商經營績效EPS之驗證結果 71[[note]]學號: 796520293, 學年度: 9