A test for the export-led growth hypothesis in possibly integrated vector autoregressions

[[abstract]]This article re-examines the direction of causation between exports and output by testing for Granger noncausality under the framework of four-variable vector autoregression. Both the methodologies developed in Toda and Phillips (1993, 1994) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) are applied. A country is recommended to enforce export promotion policies as its appropriate development strategy, if its manufacturing sector takes up a relatively large share.[[incitationindex]]SSCI[[countrycodes]]GB