Evaluation of vacant and redundant public properties and risk control. A model for the definition of the optimal mix of eligible functions

Purpose: This research aims to propose a decision support methodology for public and private subjects involved in the enhancement of public properties. In particular, with reference to cases in which the disused public property can be sold and the range of functions that define the highest and best use of the conversion was identified, the developed model allows for the assessment of the financial feasibility of the initiatives, in relation to the corresponding investment risks. Design/methodology/approach: The proposed model integrates the mathematical logic of goal programming for the evaluation of the financial conveniences of the parties (public and private) involved in the enhancement of a public property with statistical approaches (Value at Risk + Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) so as to determine the investment risk of the private investor. The application of the model to a real case study highlighted the potentialities of the proposed methodology. Findings: The model allows to determine: a) the optimal mix of intended uses to be realized in the public property under analysis; b) the fair value of the public property for the parties involved in the transaction; c) the Pareto-optimal frontier of the expected profits, as a function of the risk appetite of the private investor. Practical implications: The defined model responds to the growing international interest in the enhancement of public buildings, satisfies the objectives of the substantial reduction of soil sealing and urban sustainability, stimulates the urban regeneration of deprived areas of the cities through the reactivation of large buildings that have been disused or underused for too long. Originality/value: The present research allows to provide effective evaluation tools capable of outlining the opportunities of redevelopment initiatives and examines the risk factors that often invalidate the initial forecasts of the private entrepreneur and/or stop the activation of investments