No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.Blanca Ayarzagüena was funded by the European Project 603557-STRATOCLIM under the FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2 programme and “Ayudas para la contratación de personal postdoctoral en formación en docencia e investigación en departamentos de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid”. Blanca Ayarzagüena and Ulrike Langematz wish to acknowledge the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research programme SHARP under the grant LA 1025/15-1. Lorenzo M. Polvani is grateful for the continued support of the US National Science Foundation. The work of Neal Butchart, Steven C. Hardiman, and Fiona M. O'Connor was supported by the Joint BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Neal Butchart and Steven C. Hardiman were supported by the European Community within the StratoClim project (grant 603557). Olaf Morgenstern and Guang Zeng acknowledge the UK Met Office for use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). This research was supported by the New Zealand Government's Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF) through the NIWA programme CACV. Olaf Morgenstern acknowledges funding by the New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund (grant 12-NIW-006) and by the Deep South National Science Challenge (http://www.deepsouthchallenge.co.nz, last access: 21 March 2018). The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of New Zealand eScience Infrastructure (NeSI) high-performance computing (HPC) facilities to the results of this research. New Zealand's national facilities are provided by NeSI and funded jointly by NeSI's collaborator institutions and through the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment's Research Infrastructure programme (https://www.nesi.org.nz, last access: 21 March 2018). The EMAC simulations were performed at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) through support from the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF). DKRZ and its Scientific Steering Committee are gratefully acknowledged for providing the HPC and data archiving resources for the consortial project ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling). CCSRNIES's research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Funds of the Ministry of the Environment (2-1303) and Environment Restoration and Conservation Agency (2-1709), Japan, and computations were performed on NEC-SX9/A(ECO) and NEC SX-ACE computers at the Center for Global Environmental Research, NIES. The authors wish to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.Peer reviewe