Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets

A reduction in global meat consumption can significantly reduce the adverse environmental effects of the food system, but it would require widespread dietary changes. Such shifts to sustainable diets depend on several behavioural factors that have not yet been addressed in relation to the food system. This study links a behavioural diet shift model to an integrated assessment model to identify the main drivers of global diet change and its implications for the food system. The results show that the social norm effect (for instance, the extent of vegetarianism in the population that accelerates a further switch to a vegetarian diet) and self-efficacy are the main drivers of widespread dietary changes. These findings stress the importance of value-driven actions motivated either by intrinsic identity or by group dynamics over health and climate risk perceptions in steering diet change dynamics