成本僵固性與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性;The Relationship Between Cost Stickiness and Analyst Earnings Forecast.

[[abstract]]本研究主要探討成本僵固性對分析師盈餘預測之影響，本文將從三個角度切入探討，首先探討成本僵固性是否會影響分析師盈餘預測。第二，成本僵固性是否會影響分析師追蹤人數。第三、將銷售預測納入考量，探討分析師是否了解企業成本僵固性，並額外探討投資人之盈餘驚喜反應是否受成本僵固性影響。本研究以國內非金融業之上市櫃公司以及券商分析師之預測為研究對象，研究期間為2014第4季至2016第4季，利用敘述性統計、相關係分析及多元回歸進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，成本僵固性不會影響分析師盈餘預測、分析師追蹤人數及投資者對盈餘驚喜之反應；若將銷售預測納入考量，實際銷售額大於分析師銷售預測時(即favorable) 成本愈僵固之公司，每單位銷售預測錯誤與盈餘預測錯誤之比例愈小，費用預測錯誤愈大；實際銷售額小於分析師銷售預測時(即unfavorable)成本愈僵固之公司，每單位銷售預測錯誤與盈餘預測錯誤之比例愈大，費用預測錯誤愈小，且當銷售未達預期時，成本僵固性影對每單位銷售預測錯誤與盈餘預測錯誤之比例愈之影響較大，這顯示在台灣證券市場，分析師並未完全了解企業成本僵固性。而投資人對盈餘驚喜反應確實受分析師盈餘預測錯誤影響，然而在相同盈餘預測錯誤下，成本僵固性並不影響投資人對盈餘驚喜之反應。 This study examines whether Taiwanese companies’ cost stickiness affects analyst earnings forecast errors, analyst following, and analysts’ earnings forecast errors under favorable/unfavorable sales surprises. In addition, this paper also examines market response to earnings surprises for firm with different levels of cost stickiness.Empirical results show that cost stickiness has no significant impact on earnings forecast and the number of analyst following. However, taking sales forecast into consideration, the magnitude of earnings forecast errors under unfavorable sales is higher than the magnitude of earrings forecast under equivalent amounts of favorable sales surprises. This means that analysts do not fully recognize the effect of cost stickiness. In addition, investors’ reaction to earnings surprises are positively associated with by analysts’ forecast errors, but cost stickiness does not show incremental effect on this relationship