The chances of propensities

This article argues that if propensities are displayed in objective physical chances, then the appropriate representation of these chances is as indexed probability functions. Two alternative formal models or accounts for the relation between propensity properties and their chancy or probabilistic manifestations, in terms of conditionals and conditional probability, are first reviewed. It is argued that both confront important objections, which are overcome by the account in terms of indexed probabilities. A number of further advantages of the indexed probability account are discussed, which suggest that it is promising as a general theory of objective physical chance. The article ends with a discussion of the indexical character of the objective chances that are grounded in propensities. 1 Introduction2 Conditional Accounts 2.1 Conditionals 2.2 Conditional probability3 The Indexed Probability Account of Propensities4 Indexed Chance Functions: History and Comparisons5 Some Features of the Indexed Probability Account6 Grounds and Indexes for Propensities7 Conclusio