Incidence of Visually Impairing Cataracts Among Older Adults in Kenya.

IMPORTANCE: Half of all the cases of blindness worldwide are associated with cataract. Cataract disproportionately affects people living in low- and middle-income countries and persons of African descent. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 6-year cumulative incidence of visually impairing cataract in adult participants in the Nakuru Eye Disease Cohort Study in Kenya. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This secondary analysis of the Nakuru Eye Disease Cohort Study was conducted from February 2016 to April 2016. This cohort comprised citizens of Nakuru, Kenya, aged 50 years or older who consented to participate in the initial or baseline survey from January 2007 to November 2008, as well as the follow-up conducted from January 2013 to March 2014. All participants at baseline (n = 4364) and follow-up (n = 2159) underwent ophthalmic examination. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Six-year cumulative incidence of visually impairing cataract, risk factors of incidence, population estimates, and required cataract surgical rates to manage incident visually impairing cataract. RESULTS: In total, 4364 individuals (with a mean [SD] age of 63.4 [10.5] years and with 2275 women [52.1%]) had complete eye examinations at baseline, and 2159 participants (with a mean [SD] age of 62.5 [9.3] years and with 1140 men [52.8%]) were followed up 6 years later. The 6-year cumulative incidence of visually significant cataract in either eye was 251.9 per 1000 (95% CI, 228.5-276.8), with an increase with age from 128.9 (95% CI, 107.9-153.2) per 1000 for the group aged 50 to 59 years to 624.5 (95% CI, 493.1-739.9) per 1000 for the group aged 80 years or older. This equated to an annual incidence of visually significant cataract of 45.0 per 1000 people aged 50 years or older. Multivariable analysis showed alcohol consumption (risk ratio [RR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), diabetes (RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.3), educational level, and increasing age (RR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6-5.5 for those aged ≥80 years) were associated with incident visually impairing cataract. Extrapolations to all people aged 50 years or older in Kenya indicated that 148 280 (95% CI, 134 510-162 950) individuals might develop new visually impairing cataract in either eye (visual acuity <6/18 in the worse-seeing eye) and that 9540 (95% CI, 6610-13 750) might become cataract blind in both eyes (visual acuity