The Power of Protest Messages: An Information Model on Protest Participation in China}

This project explores how protest messages affect audiences\u27 decision to join policy oriented protests in an authoritarian context. By proposing an information model, I argue that citizens\u27 participation is affected by the behaviors of the government and the protesters included in the protest message. Such effects are moderated by (1) the partially free media environment that selectively displays certain behaviors and hides the others; and (2) individuals\u27 personal attributes that influences their interpretation of the messages. I used a survey experiment and a comparative text analysis of social media posts and news articles to test the information model. I found that government concession (responsiveness) can produce positive effects on audiences\u27 participation willingness while protesters\u27 violence generates negative effects. The propaganda media outlets selectively highlight government responsiveness in news about domestic protests so that, counter-intuitively, they become more mobilizing than non-propaganda outlets. Moreover, citizens\u27 high government trust lead them to pay more attention to the government behaviors, while low trust lead them to be more susceptible to protesters\u27 behaviors. Finally, the government repression remains uninfluential at this information level. These findings explain how citizens decide to participate by perceiving the macro socio-political conditions. It also explains the mechanism that protests diffuse at the individual level. Finally, it contributes to our understanding of ``the dictator\u27s dilemma\u27\u27 between responsiveness and increasing social demands in autocracies